The people of China have been watching their worries play out in eastern Europe this week, as the Russian military struck in the pre-dawn hours of Thursday, as instructed by Xi’s ally Vladimir Putin. Analysts and China observers agree that a near-term attack on Taiwan is unlikely. With a once-in-five-year leadership congress, this year is politically sensitive for Xi, and Taiwan is both more easily protected and more vital than Ukraine. However, J Michael Cole, a Taiwanese China expert, argues that presuming autocratic leaders like Putin and Xi make no reasonable decisions.
