US academics suggest that Beijing is more likely to employ coercion rather than invasion to achieve unification with Taiwan, highlighting the need for enhanced US deterrence measures. Instead of a direct military invasion, China could opt for a “short of war coercion campaign,” combining economic warfare with limited kinetic actions, according to American Enterprise Institute senior fellows Dan Blumenthal and Frederick Kagan in an opinion piece published in The Hill.
They point out that Beijing may escalate its existing hybrid warfare strategy, an area where current US policy is inadequately designed to deter or counteract. By pursuing unification without sparking a full-scale global conflict, China aims to minimize risks to its national power while pursuing its ambition to become the world’s leading power.
The authors highlight the deep political divisions within Taiwan and growing skepticism about US support, particularly evident in recent elections, which could leave Taiwan vulnerable to Chinese manipulation of its fears of abandonment.
Given China’s success with “gray zone” tactics in the South and East China Seas and the Taiwan Strait, they predict continued reliance on this strategy. They outline a scenario involving constant military incursions, a quasi-blockade, political warfare, cyber and physical sabotage, and potential use of deadly force on outlying islands over a four-year period.
Such actions could strain the US-Taiwan relationship, weaken Taipei’s governance capabilities, and diminish Taiwanese resistance and US willingness to aid Taiwan. Beijing might exploit this situation to offer Taipei a semblance of autonomy in exchange for cooperation.
Blumenthal and Kagan urge the US and its allies to deter China by affirming Taiwan’s sovereign rights under international law and rejecting Chinese attempts to portray Taiwanese affairs as internal matters. They advocate for joint efforts to bolster Taiwan’s resilience against blockades and economic coercion and propose a coalition to counter Chinese military intimidation, such as air incursions over the Taiwan Strait.
