US Marine Corps Major General Michael Regner, during his visit with the Isle of Palms Chamber of Commerce Charleston South Carolina on May 28, delved into a range of global issues, including analyzing a new method of warfare anticipated in future years.
Throughout his 47-year military career, Regner served in various capacities, including as a “Chinese expert,” monitoring China’s relations with neighboring nations like Taiwan.
Despite Taiwan’s self-perception as an independent entity and its close alliance with the United States, China maintains its stance of considering the island as a province soon to be reunited with Beijing.
Regner firmly stated, “Taiwan won’t defeat China.”
Regarding tensions between the US and China, the guest speaker suggested that any conflict between the two superpowers would likely diverge from traditional ground warfare.
“Most likely, it will go non-kinetic; non-kinetic is electronic war,” he predicted, with attacks being cyber-related.
He further noted that an example of such a strike could resemble the May 2021 shutdown of the Colonial Pipeline, deemed an act of war, which severely affected residents, businesses, and airlines along the East Coast and was declared a national security threat by the federal government.
“When you all thought we had no gas on the East Coast. In fact, we had plenty of gas. But all of our systems were shut down because the gas line they controlled didn’t have gas in it — that’s cyber warfare.”
In terms of ranking the top five cyber superpowers globally, the retired military strategist highlighted that the US remains the foremost, followed by China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran, in that sequence. Despite China boasting a larger Navy compared to America’s naval fleet, it does not surpass the US maritime service branch in overall superiority.
Regner further noted that while the Western world, including the US and Europe, generally adheres to the rules of armed warfare, countries like China, Russia, and those in the Arabian Gulf operate under different standards and/or protocols governed by artificial intelligence.
Additionally, Regner pointed out the Bab al-Mandab Strait, situated between Yemen on the Arabian Peninsula and Eritrea in the horn of Africa, as a crucial area through which a significant portion of the world’s oil flows into the Mediterranean Sea and Europe. Moreover, approximately 17 percent of the world’s financial data is transmitted through undersea cables in that region.
Highlighting the significance of safeguarding America’s undersea communication cables, particularly the 65 percent that run between the US and the United Kingdom, Regner emphasized the paramount importance of this task.
“Russia has very good subs — not as good as ours,” he maintained in relation to how the US protects their fiber-optic internet infrastructure. “They cannot get within so many meters of a sub because we’ll pick up the electronic signature of any type of system — battery-powered or not — that gets too close to our undersea cables.”
While the former general refrained from making any political statements, he offered an overview of the stakes involved in the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
Regner attributed Russia’s initial aggression towards its neighbor to concerns about Ukraine’s potential accession to NATO, which would eliminate a buffer zone for the Putin-led nation.
He predicted a eventual ceasefire in the Eastern European standoff, envisioning Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy conceding four districts to Russia, including access to some of its 18 ports.
The general himself detailed some adversity he faced during his storied career.
“Crisis is inevitable; drama is optional. I’ve had crises in my career. I’ve lost my brothers and my sisters, my drivers and my radio operators … you all have had crisis. If you haven’t, you will. You got to be the yoke. You got to be the person they want to look up to . You got to be that strength, that source of power.”
