This publication is a product of Carnegie China. For more work by Carnegie China, click here.

Amid escalating tensions between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea, concerns over a military confrontation at the Second Thomas Shoal—potentially involving the United States—loom large. Despite these fears, there are substantial reasons to believe that both Beijing and Manila will strive to avoid military conflict. Chinese leaders must seriously consider the regional geopolitical consequences and the significant distraction from their current focus on domestic socioeconomic challenges. For Manila, the immediate constraint is the unfavorable balance of military power compared to China. Many uncertainties remain regarding how the United States, an ally of the Philippines, may react if a naval skirmish occurs in the South China Sea.

A crucial issue is how Manila and its allies will ultimately respond to China’s gray zone tactics in the South China Sea. These tactics have proven difficult for regional states that lay claim to parts of the South China Sea and their supporters for over a decade and are increasingly the most crucial factor in deciding the outcome of ongoing tensions between Beijing and Manila.

More on

https://carnegieendowment.org/posts/2024/06/the-possibility-of-a-china-philippines-conflict-in-the-south-china-sea?lang=en&center=china